Within the Defence Investment Plan (DIP) released by the UK Ministry of Defence (MoD) on 30 June 2026 there were always going to be some capabilities cut in order to pay for others. While the DIP has secured an additional GBP 15 billion against the MoD’s previous plans agreed in the last spending review, and will take UK defence spending to GBP 80 billion per year by 2029, it certainly does not cover the estimated GBP 28 billion defence spending shortfall over the next four years.

With regard to UK air platforms the cuts do at least seem to have occurred in the most logical areas and vital future airborne capabilities are receiving investment, yet at least some spending might be considered somewhat bold in terms of near-future combat maturity.

A Next-Generation RAF

The DIP states that, in response to the current military-geopolitical climate, the MoD “will create a Next-Generation Royal Air Force, which will comprise an evolving mix of fourth-, fifth- and sixth-generation crewed and uncrewed air systems, armed with the optimum mix of mass and exquisite weapons”.

Most crucially for the Royal Air Force (RAF) this means it is full steam ahead under the DIP for the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP), in which the UK is working alongside international partners Japan and Italy to build a stealthy next-generation combat aircraft. Under the DIP more than GBP 8.6 billion will be invested by the UK into the GCAP effort over the next four years. UK industry led by BAE Systems, along with its Italian and Japanese partners, will thus be at the heart of developing a six-generation combat aircraft after the Franco-German-Spanish New Generation Fighter project to develop a similar capability collapsed in early June. The DIP states of the GCAP programme, “We will sign the next international contract shortly and continue our significant investment in R&D, design and capabilities for GCAP and the wider FCAS [Future Combat Air System].”

Meanwhile, the DIP recommits to the purchase of the UK’s “next batch of F-35s”. These are the 12 conventional F-35A Lightning Joint Strike Fighter variants and 15 short take-off and landing (STOVL) F-35Bs the UK announced it would purchase in June 2025. At the time UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer stated the F-35As would be used to contribute to NATO’s nuclear Dual Capable Aircraft mission. The UK’s current Lightning Force, operated jointly by the RAF and Royal Navy’s Fleet Air Arm, comprises 47 STOVL F-35Bs, although six test aircraft within this fleet are permanently assigned to No 17 Squadron and based at Edwards Air Force Base in California, Marine Corp Air Station Beaufort in South Carolina and Naval Air Station Patuxent River in Maryland.

While the new F-35s are scheduled to enter service in the early 2030s, the DIP made no mention of the MoD’s previously stated long-term requirement to operate a total of 138 F-35s, nor does it mention what that force mix might look like in terms of conventional and STOVL F-35s.

Regarding the RAF’s fourth-generation fighter fleet, the DIP states that the MoD “will ensure Typhoon’s capability and underpinning industrial capacity enables the aircraft to operate into the 2040s, with exports underpinning our prosperity agenda”. GBP 5.4 billion is slated to be spent between FY26/27 and FY29/30 on upgrading the RAF’s Typhoon fleet, which from 2027 will consist of 67 Tranche 2 aircraft and 40 Tranche 3 aircraft after the older Tranche 1 Typhoon have been retired.

In terms of other future combat air capabilities, the MoD states in the DIP, “We will commence a collaborative combat aircraft [CCA] programme; in partnership with industry, we aim to have a concept demonstrator flying by at least 2030 and will seek to accelerate the capability into service as soon as possible” and that “Over time this programme will deliver capability from both land bases and our carriers”.

The DIP states that GBP 300 million will be spent on this CCA programme between FY26/27 and FY29/30. The pursuit of such a capability is certainly ambitious and Tempest, the GCAP fighter, was always intended to operate as part of a wider Future Combat Air System with uncrewed elements. Some analysts, however, might wonder exactly how combat ready CCA technology will be in the next few years (although the US and Turkish air forces, for example, are among those pressing a CCA capability closer to service).

In parallel with the CCA spending the DIP stipulates that almost GBP 250 million will be assigned between FY26/27 and FY29/30 to Project Pantheon: the framework for developing autonomous collaborative platforms (ACPs) for a future hybrid carrier air wing. Project Vanquish will see the demonstration of a jet-powered, fixed-wing ACP launched from a Queen Elizabeth-class aircraft carrier within the next 18 months.

Regarding other air platforms, the DIP stipulates that GBP 360 million will be spent over the next four years on fully recapitalising the RAF’s Jet Training System “to deliver both sovereign and international training and with a significant UK workshare”. In addition, GBP 860 million has been allocated to replace the RAF’s fleets of Hawk T1 and T2 advanced jet trainers, which will also include providing a new platform for the RAF’s Red Arrows aerobatic team. Replacement of the Hawks was becoming a pressing issue, given that the Red Arrows’ Hawk T1s have a 2030 out-of-service date and the Hawks T2s are now intended to be withdrawn in 2033.

Meanwhile, GBP 260 million has been allocated over the next four years “to upgrade the RAF’s P-8 maritime patrol aircraft and equip them with the UK-built Stingray torpedo, providing export opportunities to wider P-8 users”.

A detailed breakdown on the spending on major RAF platforms is detailed in the table below:

For the UK’s New Medium Helicopter programme (NMH), under which 23 Leonardo AW149 medium multi-role helicopters were ordered on 2 March 2026, the DIP specifies that GBP 680 million will be spent on this project over the next four years, securing the future of Leonardo’s production site at Yeovil in Somerset, traditionally known as the ‘home of British helicopters’.

Air defence

The DIP fully acknowledges that the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East in recent years have demonstrated the critical importance of integrated air and missile defence (IAMD): capabilities in which the UK armed forces are certainly lacking. The DIP is thus investing GBP 790 million over the next four years to enhance the protection of the UK homeland and overseas bases from air, drone and missile threats. This investment is set to cover both new command-and-control (C2) capabilities and sensors to new effectors, including directed-energy weapons.

In all GBP 400 million is being invested over the next four years to replace obsolete and dated C2 systems and sensors, which will include the establishment of a new Integrated Air, Space and Missile Defence Operations Centre.

The Sea Viper air defence missile systems on the Royal Navy’s Type 45 destroyers will be upgraded and these ships are intended to be able to deliver an initial ballistic missile defence capability by 2028. As part of a GBP 490 million investment to develop directed-energy weapons, the Type 45s are from 2027 also to receive DragonFire laser weapon systems, which can counter both swarming UAVs and unmanned surface vessels.

Regarding the British Army’s Sky Sabre air defence missile systems, over GBP 350 million is being invested to double their number (it’s not clear how many Sky Sabre systems the army has, but it could well be a single figure with as few as 12 Land Ceptor launchers).

Over GBP 750 million will be provided over the next four years to provide short-range drone protection for homeland and deployed forces. This includes GBP 240 million for Project Presagium, which builds on the recent success of the RAF Regiment’s Rapid Sentry counter-UAV system, alongside a suite of low-cost ground-based counter-UAV effectors such as Skyhammer.

Air platform casualties

In more than one section the DIP notes that “resetting the programme to deliver this transformation has forced hard but necessary decisions”. In the air domain this is understandably leading to the withdrawal of manned aircraft whose missions can easily be performed by uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs) without putting any personnel in harm’s way. Thus, Joint Aviation Command’s fleet of 34 Wildcat AH1 battlefield reconnaissance helicopters will face early retirement from 2027 and the RAF’s eight Beechcraft King Air 350-based Shadow R1 ISR aircraft will also be retired early.

In an online briefing to journalists just prior to the release of the DIP, an MoD spokesperson stated, “I think the Wildcat’s a good example of the changing balance between crewed and uncrewed in the DIP. The idea of sending a crewed helicopter forward over any enemy lines to visually search for targets doesn’t feel like it makes any sense in a modern battlefield, so we will invest in new uncrewed technology to do that job in the future.”

Although the DIP specifies that GBP 460 million will be spent on the 28-strong Wildcat HMA2 fleet from FY26/27 to FY29/30, it notes that among the major investments slated to occur in the 2030-35 timeframe include “an autonomous replacement for Wildcat maritime helicopters”.

Further to these early withdrawals, the DIP states that early retirement will also come to Joint Aviation Command’s oldest Chinook heavylift helicopters (referring to 32 Chinook HC6As) “as they reach maintenance milestones”, adding that these withdrawals will be “offset by investment in Projects Nyx and Corvus, New Medium Helicopter and planned future purchases of newer Chinooks”. Project Nyx is the programme to develop UAV wingmen to operate alongside the UK’s Apache attack helicopters, with up to 24 armed autonomous drones to be delivered by 2030, while Project Corvus is an ISTAR UAV programme to replace the British Army’s obsolescent-by-the-time-they-entered-service Watchkeeper UAVs.